Airbus is offering the Indian Navy a Maritime Patrol Aircraft as depicted above, based on the A319. Boeing started work over a year ago on its own version of its MMA (a modified 737 NG for maritime patrol duties). Both planes seem less suitable for this role because they are larger and heavier than the turboprops they are trying to replace. Jets burn far more fuel at low altitude than turboprops while anti-submarine and anti-surface warfare tend to keep airplanes low. Also, two engines do not offer great redundancy "when 1,500 miles from the closest suitable airfield, at night, and just several hundred feet above the water, suddenly having to keep flying and get home on just one engine definitely pegs an aircrew's puckerometer".

Another program Airbus has to start developing, but still remains on the horizon: a new single aisle plane (A320 replacement) that will have to be technologically far more advanced than what has been announced for the A350. Airbus may have to shut its eyes (sort of like Boeing did) and dive into the composite fuselage waters (CFRP). Boeing has announced that they are preparing for a CRFP-based project for the 737 replacement and so there is little reason for Airbus to hide their intentions. A tremendous amount of CFRP work has been undertaken by European research and academic institutions, mainly the German Aerospace Institute (DLR, a daily reader of this site) and it would be wise to put all that useful information into something valuable that could generate another Airbus success story. Well, maybe.

Maybe when they manage to resolve management issues at EADS, the Airbus team will use ONE HEAD to make decisions instead of 4 or 5 (France, Germany, UK, Spain) and often not in unison. The recent conflicting comments on the A350 from Mr. Foregeard and Mr. Humbert clearly demonstrate such confusion.

Meanwhile Boeing is apparently moving smoothly ahead with a probable second assembly line for 787 and is likely to score some new orders for the growth 787-10 model. Customers for this plane were looking at the A350 and probably cannot wait much longer because the earliest (and most valuable) 787 delivery slots are ever harder to come by. Rising oil prices and interest rates favor quicker decisions. A two year delay for a revised A350/370 don't help. Talk of an Airbus "hero program" that will take on both the 777 and 787 are, well, heroic. Boeing is almost certainly toying with a CRFP-based 777, and therefore will be able to offer plastic fantastic solutions from 250 to 350 seats.

Potentail new players in the single aisle market are lagging in new designs. We see nothing specific and threatening coming from either Bombardier or Embraer. It seems that Bombardier has found a niche with new interest in its CRJ and Q400 stretches. It appears that whatever plane you create there will always be someone to buy it! Good for them, maybe less good for passengers. Long thin tubes probably cannot be made comfortable in a commercial airline environment.

Embraer is heading more in the direction of business jets - which is a smart move since they do not want to irritate (and be squeezed by) Airbus and Boeing. Upsetting Bombardier (Embraer’s favorite target) along with Gulfstream, Dassault, Cessna and Raytheon is an acceptable risk. It will be interesting to see if Embraer is capable of covering such a broad market (from very light business jets to luxury long-distance models) in a short period.

Capital is the challenge and investing in many new projects can be very risky, just ask Bombardier or Airbus. But its not only financial capital. Embraer is stretching its resources and may be losing some core engineers. Gulfstream recently visited Brazil in order to lure Brazilian aerospace engineers to the US. Guess who pays better? The market for aerospace engineers is wide open in all sectors, large commercial, military and business jets.

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(REVISED --- LATEST INPUTS; PLEASE READ THIS)

New inputs from May 30, 2006

EADS proposes maritime variant of Airbus A319 with bomb bay doors for India EADS proposes maritime variant of Airbus A319 with bomb bay doors for India

Airbus, Boeing, IAI, Ilyushin and Lockheed Martin bid for reconnaissance aircraft deal

EADS plans to develop a new variant of the Airbus A319/A320 to compete with the Boeing P-8A Multi-mission Maritime Aircraft (MMA) on offer to India.

Industry sources say the Indian navy is evaluating a proposal, led by EADS Casa and based on the A319, for its eight-aircraft maritime reconnaissance requirement.

Other proposals received by India include an export variant of the US Navy’s P-8A, dubbed the P-8I, from Boeing; a new solution based on the Dassault Falcon 900 from Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI); an improved version of the Il-38 from Ilyushin, and a refurbished P-3 from Lockheed Martin.

EADS sources say the A319 proposal is similar to a maritime solution first proposed to Italy and Germany in 2003, which had a bomb-bay and missile hardpoints housed in canoe fairings. But for India, which wants an aircraft to detect and attack submarines, the bomb bay has been moved to the cargo bay and the missile hardpoints moved to the wings.

To further reduce non-recurring engineering costs, EADS Casa’s FITS mission system is being proposed for India instead of the tailor-made system offered to Italy and Germany.

“It is using part of the development for the Germans and Italians, but the concept has changed a bit. For the Germans and Italians it was a purpose-built aircraft. In the case of India, it’s a derivative aircraft,” says an EADS source.

Several other countries – including Australia, Canada and France – have expressed interest in the aircraft proposed to India and will likely be offered a similar solution based on an A320, because they require more range and endurance. However, few are expected to launch competitions for new anti-submarine warfare aircraft in the near future, the source adds.

EADS anticipates most P-3 operators will not begin to look for replacements for at least five and perhaps 10 or even 15 years. Consequently, it expects several maritime surveillance competitions will be held between 2010-20.