June 7, 2006

FAA ruling could be a big plus for Boeing

Agency
 
 
The Boeing Co. could soon score a victory in its battle with Airbus, with a favorable settlement over a key question that many air travelers no longer think about.

The Federal Aviation Administration is close to ruling that airliners with two jet engines are just as safe as those with three or four engines. What that will do is greatly ease restrictions that the FAA and other regulators have traditionally placed on twin-engined jets flying over oceans, deserts or the North Pole.

This should be good news for Boeing's 777 program, because it will allow airlines to fly twin-engine jets on more-direct routes over long distances.

"It's where the real world was headed," said Teal Group analyst Richard Aboulafia. "This is the next logical step."

The rule in question was created in the early days of commercial air traffic, when engine reliability was a real question. The Federal Aviation Administration decreed that all two-engine airplanes carrying passengers must fly routes keeping them within 60 minutes' flying time of the nearest emergency landing field.

The idea, of course, was that if one engine failed, the plane still could limp to safety on the remaining one.

In 1985, the FAA doubled that limit to 120 minutes, creating a new set of rules for ETOPS. Officially that stands for "extended twin-engine operations," but some old-timers still joke that it could be "engines turn or passengers swim."

The new ETOPS rule opened up the North Atlantic to Boeing's 767. For the first time, a fuel-efficient 200-seat plane could fly routes between North America and Europe that had been dominated by much larger, multi-engine jets.

In 1989, the FAA ruled that the 767 could be flown up to 180 minutes away from an emergency field, which meant airlines could fly jets more-directly across the ocean. When the 777 came into service a few years later, it also was eventually granted 180-minute ETOPS status.

Since then, there's been a fair amount of sniping between Boeing and Airbus on the issue.

Airbus' long-range mid-size jet is the A340. It's a four-engine jet, which means it can be flown wherever an airline wants to go. That's been a key selling point for Airbus, which for a while marketed the plane with the slogan, "4 engines 4 the long haul."

On the other hand, Boeing's competing 777s and 767s still have to fly routes that take them within range of emergency landing fields, veering north or south across the Pacific, for example, to come close to Midway Island or Alaska.

At least one airline I can think of - South African Airways, back in 2002 - opted for A340s in large part because of this. The airline flies a lot of over-water routes across the Indian and south Atlantic oceans, and said the A340 was a better fit because it allowed for direct flights.

The regulators have loosened the rules a little since then, extending the maximum ETOPS in some cases to 207 minutes. Boeing, however, has been arguing for more than a decade that twin-engine jets are so safe and reliable that there's no need for separate twin-engine rules at all.

The FAA is likely to extend the limit to 330 minutes - that's 51/2 hours.

Boeing did flight tests showing that 330 minutes is feasible during the certification trials for the 777-300ER in 2003-04. The test pilots simply shut down an engine and flew the test planes on one for five or more hours at a time.

"Whatever point Airbus might have made about the virtues of quad jets has been overtaken by events," Aboulafia said. "There's an unmistakable trend in turbine reliability."

The new rules will allow more airlines to make decisions based on straight economics, he said. That means they'll go for twin-jet 777s, which are more economical to operate than a four-engine plane.

Airbus' four-engine A340 already was being battered by Boeing's more-efficient 777. The pending FAA decision "means the end of whatever sliver of hope the A340 had," Aboulafia said.

The deal is not final. The latest draft rules have been approved by top agency officials and is under final review by White House officials, the paper said. European regulators are working on companion regulations for ultralong operations, though their draft won't be released until at least late this year.